A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled by Dr John Latham

By Dr John Latham

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7B for NY important for contingent business interruption. 4 Trillion World Insurance Market • • • • World’s biggest industry; important to economic development Large employer Major player in financial markets Enormous political influence 2005 Source: Swiss Re, Sigma No. 5/2005 Disasters Look Different Through an Insurance “Lens” Aggregate Global Impacts: 1980-2004 Source: E. ) Non-climate factors play a role, but… $2004 insured losses $2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses 20 $2004 property insurance premiums $2004 GDP population • Trends consistent with observed change • Why are non-weather losses level?

1901-1950 1951-1978 1979-2003 Frequency Temperature Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Rare Extremes Cause Most of the Damages & Insured Losses The European heat wave of Summer 2003 Source: Schar et al, Nature, v. 427, 2004. Small-scale, Indirect Events and Consequences Often Overlooked Events Greater combined impacts than CATs in an average year • • • • • • • • • • • Drought Hail Heat waves Ice Storms Lightning Sea-level rise Thunderstorms Tornados Torrential rains Wildfire Winterstorms Consequences • Blackouts • Coastal erosion • Crop/fishery damages • Equipment breakdown • Eroded air quality • Eroded water quality • Flooding • Health impacts • Mudslides • Property loss • Sinkholes/Subsidence • Weather-related vehicle accidents Temperature-Related Insurance Loss Experience Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature Each symbol represents a lightning storm event Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.

Fingerprints ... Permafrost Disintegration Fingerprints ... Glaciers & frozen ground are receding 200,000 km2 Accelerating since early 1990s Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreased by 7% from 1901 to 2002 Consumer Reports on Glaciers Fingerprints ... 3 Lake Tahoes] 720 billion tons Subsequent 8x increse in outflow glacier speed Correlation of Disease Clusters with the 1997-1998 El Nino Weather Extremes El Nino expected to become more frequent under climate change Source: Epstein, Harvard Medical School, Science World Health Organization estimates climate change already causing 150,000 premature deaths/yr in 2000 Overwhelming Correlations Synthesis of Scientific Literature on Observed Changes 1970-2004 • 577 studies reviewed • 765 observed physical changes (94% consistent with warming) • 28,671 observed biological changes (90% consistent with warming) Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Is there a scientific consensus that global warming is real?

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